Mixed Signals: An Assessment Of U.S. Recession Risk In The Year Ahead
Tom Joyce, Global Head of Capital Markets Strategy for MUFG discusses his recently published report, "Mixed Signals: An Assessment Of US Recession Risk In The Year Ahead", where over 110 signals for previous US recessions were reviewed to form a projection of the likelihood of a recession and what it will look like.
Unlocking the Next Economic Downturn
Is the economy headed into recession? If so, this one chart may contain the secret to finding out when a downturn might begin. Insights by CME Group Senior Economist, Erik Norland.
Busy Week Caps Best Month Since 2020
The last week of July saw over a third of S&P 500 companies' Q2 earnings calls, the Fed raise interest rates 75bps, the second consecutive quarter of negative growth, and the market's best month since 2020.
GBP/USD Downtrend Support
Can GBP/USD traders push through key support levels? Or are factors like recession fears and U.K. politics hindering the sterling’s recovery? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Consumer Spending Betraying Sentiment
The market is still searching for direction amidst the ides of July and Q2 earnings calls, strong consumer spending and near-half-century-low consumer sentiment, and fund managers reducing their allocation to equities to lows not seen since October 2008.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 18: Investment-Grade Corporates and the Macro Backdrop
Managing Director Justin Takata discusses the technical and fundamental drivers of value in investment grade corporates, and U.S. Economist Matt Bush addresses recession timing and the possible progression of policy.
Since June 14th U.S. 2-year Treasury yields have fallen over 50 basis points. Will the Fed signal a more cautious approach or will rates resume higher amid stubborn inflation? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Hot Seat: Kevin O'Leary
Kevin O'Leary answers viewer questions covering the current market outlook and talk of recession, the advice he's giving his Shark Tank companies, his thoughts on getting into NFTs, and why he now wears two watches.
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 16: Fed Watch: A Deep Dive into 75
Brian Smedley, Guggenheim’s Chief Economist and Head of Macroeconomic and Investment Research, discusses the impact of the Fed’s 0.75% rate hike on markets and the economy.
2-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Push Higher
U.S. treasury yields are higher across the curve with the 2-year trading above 2.5%. Is the Fed caught between taming inflation and easing recession worries? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Recession Warning? Following The Yield Curve
For the first time since 2006, the 30-year vs. 5-year part of the yield curve has inverted, raising fears of a possible recession. Is this a harbinger of what’s to come or merely just a reflection about the future state of the economy? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services.
Is The Yield Curve Headed Towards Inversion?
Recession fears are starting to show up in the yield curve. What can history teach us about curve inversions? Insights by Jim Iuorio.