The Global Pace of Interest Rate Hikes
While most central banks outside of China and Japan have been raising rates, the extent to which they have increased rates varies a great deal from one country to another. So, how tight is monetary policy really? CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland explains. View exclusive content and premium features Create a CME Group account
Beware of Time Lag in Monetary Policy
After the Fed’s tightening cycles in 1989 and 2000, it took the economy about one year to tip into a recession. CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland provides a historical look at time lags in monetary policy and their actual effects on an economy. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
U.S. Midterm Election
Ongoing uncertainty around inflation, monetary policy and the economy may impact market volatility around the U.S. midterms this year. Craig Bewick with CME Group and Scott Bauer with Prosper Trading Academy look at volatility in the 10-Year Treasury options immediately before and after the last few major elections. Here’s what they found. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Fed Battles Inflation with Another Historic Rate Hike
The Fed is moving expeditiously toward neutral, raising interest rates another 75 basis points and matching June's hike, which was the most in three decades. During his press conference, Fed Chair Jay Powell told journalists that he does not think the U.S. is currently in a recession, but he warned that nothing works in the economy without price stability. Powell said the Fed could do another unusually large rate hike in September, but it all depends on the data.
El-Erian Fears Fed Will Flip-Flop
Dr. Mohamed El-Erian, President of Queens' College, Cambridge and chief economic adviser at Allianz, is worried the Federal Reserve will flip-flop between policies as it strives to balance curbing inflation with maintaining a healthy economy.
Macro Markets Podcast: Episode #6
Floating rate assets and credit should perform well as monetary policy changes course. Featuring Matt Bush, U.S. economist and a managing director in our Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group; Adam Bloch, portfolio manager and one of the leaders of our Total Return team; and Karthik Narayanan, managing director and head of Guggenheim’s Structured Credit Team.
Fed to Hike Rates Soon
Fed Chair Jay Powell said that soon it will be appropriate to raise the target fed funds rate, acknowledging that inflation is far above the Fed's long-term goal of 2% and the labor market is "very very strong." Powell didn't rule out the possibility of QT or rolling off the nearly $9 trillion balance sheet or offer timing guidance, except that this would not happen until after the start of rate hikes, which he called the Fed's "primary" tool.
Interest Rate Hike Could Come in 2022, Fed Dot Plot Shows
The Fed didn't touch interest rates or its bond purchases at the September meeting, but Powell hinted that a tapering announcement could be coming in November. "So long as the recovery remains on track a gradual tapering process that concludes around the middle of next year is likely to be appropriate," said Powell. He reiterated that tapering does not mean rates are going anywhere right away, but the Fed's latest dot plot did show that half of policymakers now expect a hike in 2022.
Fed Holds Steady at March Meeting
As expected, the FOMC is leaving rates unchanged and keeping up its asset purchase program of $120 billion each month. When asked if the Fed is thinking about thinking about tapering, Chair Powell said the Fed will be looking for substantial further progress before tapering. During the press conference, Powell acknowledged growth, but cautioned that "the economy is a long way from our goals" and the recovery is “uneven and far from complete."
All Eyes on March FOMC Meeting
With the S&P and Dow hitting fresh highs, stock markets seem to be shrugging off some of the concerns about inflation, rising yields in the bond markets, and the threat of higher interest rates. Still, monetary policy will have a huge impact on where we go from here. Investors want guidance on how concerned the Fed really is about inflation, how long the central bank is committed to keeping interest rates near zero, and the future of its aggressive bond-buying program to the tune of $120 billion each month.
The 3-Pronged Approach to Combatting Coronavirus
Invesco Chief Global Market Strategist Kristina Hooper says one of the most asked questions from clients right now is: "What is the appropriate policy response?" She describes a three-pronged approach that includes public health, monetary policy, and fiscal stimulus.