Can Central Banks Control Inflation With Negative Real Rates?
Inflation in the UK is running at 10.1%; that’s nearly 6% above the Bank of England’s policy rate. Can the central bank control inflation with negative real rates? Insights by CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools, and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Beware of Time Lag in Monetary Policy
After the Fed’s tightening cycles in 1989 and 2000, it took the economy about one year to tip into a recession. CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland provides a historical look at time lags in monetary policy and their actual effects on an economy. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Powell’s Congressional Testimony Spooks Markets
After recent economic data showed an uptick in inflation, the Head of the Federal Reserve was forced to leave behind the “disinflationary” rhetoric used after the first Federal Open Market Committee Meeting of the year, instead describing inflation as “moderating” while testifying to Congress on the Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy decisions.
Are Markets Fighting The Fed?
There are several sayings on Wall Street. One of them is “Don’t fight the Fed”, but markets seem to be doing exactly that. Morgan Stanley Managing Director, Lisa Shalett believes the US equity market is fighting the Fed, ignoring leading economic indicators, and that could mean pain for overly optimistic positions down the road.
Market Reacts To First Fed Day Of 2023
The fed announced a 25bps rate hike after its first FOMC meeting of 2023, bringing the new benchmark rate range to 4.50% and 4.75%, the highest level since October 2007. Peter Tuchman, aka “the Einstein of Wall Street” aka “the most photographed man on Wall Street”, shares his thoughts on how the news was received on the Floor.
Kansas City Fed President Says It’s Time To Look Around Corners
In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Kansas City Fed President, Esther George, said that the U.S. economy is in a good place and that the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation are working in many areas, but certain markets remain too tight.
Where Will The Fed Go In 2023?
Jonathan Corpina, Senior Managing Partner, Meridian Equity Partners discusses where the Fed might take interest rates in 2023, the sliding value of the dollar, and earnings season as analysts contemplate earnings compression.
Why Are Markets Chasing “Pivot Talk”?
Positive inflation news has sparked the markets with talk of a Fed pivot, but is inflation finally beginning to moderate? Insights by CME Group Senior Economist, Erik Norland. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Peak Inflation Narrative
Treasury yields continue to edge lower following slower U.S. consumer price growth. Is inflation starting to ease? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Services. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Tight or Loose, Where Does Monetary Policy Stand?
Can central banks bring inflation down without putting real rates into positive territory? The answer: it’s complicated. Insights by CME Group Senior Economist, Erik Norland. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
U.S. Midterm Election
Ongoing uncertainty around inflation, monetary policy and the economy may impact market volatility around the U.S. midterms this year. Craig Bewick with CME Group and Scott Bauer with Prosper Trading Academy look at volatility in the 10-Year Treasury options immediately before and after the last few major elections. Here’s what they found. Take advantage of premium derivatives content, tools and alerts. Create a CME Group account
Macro Markets Podcast Episode 22: Investors' Guide to the Fed’s Hard Landing
Brian Smedley, Chief Economist and Head of the Macroeconomic and Investment Research Group, discusses the Fed’s third straight 75 basis point hike and its meaning for the economy and investors.