Should Investors Be Concerned About a Potential Recession in 2024?
Denis Poljak, Partner, Managing Director, Wealth Manager of Poljak Group Wealth Management at Steward Partners, shares his thoughts on the Fed and inflation, market outlook, and more.
Traders Increasingly Focused on Financials, AI, Real Estate Sectors
“U.S. markets are grappling with high inflation and crucial central bank policy decisions,” Paul Woolman, Global Head of Equity Products at CME Group, said in a recent OpenMarkets roundtable. “As a result, we are seeing dispersion emerging in different equity sectors this year, ranging from energy and technology to regional banks and semiconductors.” Keeping in mind the headwinds facing the global economy during the second half of 2023, Woolman led Hamish Preston, director of U.S. equity indices at S&P Dow Jones Indices, and Steve Nawrocki, head of equities trading for the Americas at BNP Paribas, in a discussion around what’s next for equity sectors and how traders can use futures to bolster their trading strategies. Monitor the futures products that matter to you. Create a watchlist.
Has Inflation Reached an Inflection Point?
Will the 2020s look like the 1970s with unstable inflation and soaring prices? Or will the economy return to the 2010s with low stable inflation rates of around 2%? There is a case to be made both ways, says CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland. Monitor the futures products that matter to you. Create a watchlist.
Chicago Fed Eyes Possibility of Goldilocks Ending
Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee suggests that the so-called “golden path”--one in which the U.S. inflation rate cools without a recession–is not guaranteed, but within reach.
A Sticky Situation for the ECB
Inflation data from Germany and Spain has raised the prospect that price growth across the eurozone may be hotter than originally projected. Does this raise the probability of another rate hike by the ECB in September? CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland explains. CME Group experts regularly share insights and analysis on market events that matter to you.
Another Boost for 10-Year Yields
Over the last four months, U.S. 10-year yields have risen from 3.35% to 4.30%. Jim Iuorio says, the driver of the rise seems to be a persistent fall in inflation coupled with surprising resilience in other non-inflation data. Analyze the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate and U.S. monetary policy, as implied by 30-day Fed Funds Futures pricing data.
Debate Over A New Rate Environment
With the no recession view becoming a popular base case, there has been a shift in the longer-term inflation debate, says CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam. View exclusive content and premium features. Create a CME Group account
A Not So Wishful Economic Situation
For the last three decades, Japan has been oscillating in and out of deflation. But that narrative has recently flipped with the Bank of Japan now dealing with its own inflation. Why is Japan’s inflation rate a big deal for global markets? CME Group Senior Economist Erik Norland explains. View exclusive content and premium features. Create a CME Group account
After a string of surprisingly strong economic data points, along with declining inflation numbers, the prevailing consensus is one of a soft landing with less reliance on the Federal Reserve easing rates, says Jim Iuorio. But what is the yield curve saying? View exclusive content and premium features. Create a CME Group account
Credit is the Next Shoe to Drop
Anne Walsh, Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners Investment Management, joins Bloomberg TV to discuss the latest inflation data, the economic cycle, and portfolio positioning.
U.S. Inflation Comes in Below Estimates
U.S. inflation for the month of June has fallen to its lowest annual rate, a level not seen since two years ago. Following the CPI report, the U.S. dollar plummeted against major currencies. Where does the EUR/USD pair stand? Insights by Jim Iuorio with TJM Institutional Get the latest news on futures and options in the FX markets with product news and information, macro trends, and more.
What to Watch with the Next Fiscal and Monetary Regime
As the economy enters a phase of policy restraint on both the fiscal and monetary fronts, risk managers must learn to adapt to a persistence of short-term interest rates remaining above inflation expectations, a slower growth economic environment, and policy constraints no longer supporting equity and bond markets. CME Group Chief Economist Blu Putnam explains. View exclusive content and premium features Create a CME Group account